🎲 Horizon: Probability Language
Second lesson of the future module. Learners meet the five-zone probability dial — bound to / certain to at the top, likely to and might well in the middle, unlikely to, I doubt and no chance at the bottom — and learn the machinery of each phrase: be + bound/likely/unlikely + to-infinitive, might well + base verb, I doubt (that) + clause, and the adverb rule that probably follows will but precedes won’t. The core skill is calibration: matching the claim to the evidence and repairing overclaims aloud. In the story, Coach Deniz unveils a game-show wheel, Sam pins “flying cars are bound to be everywhere by 2030” to the top zone and watches the evidence drag it down to UNLIKELY, while Priya’s claim survives the defence round with usage numbers and a grandmother as a witness.
Lesson Plan
- How much do you believe “I’m definitely going to be famous”?
- Order four snow claims by certainty
- A wish, a guess and a prediction — define all three
Key Vocabulary
Grammar Points
- be bound to / be likely to / be unlikely to + infinitive need the verb be: She is likely to win, never She likely to win
- might well + base verb signals a genuine chance — stronger than plain might, and it never takes to
- Probably follows will but precedes won’t: It will probably rain / It probably won’t rain
- I doubt (that) + clause restates be unlikely to + infinitive: I doubt he’ll come = He is unlikely to come
- The dial orders certainty: is bound to > is likely to > might well > might > is unlikely to > definitely won’t
